Usain BOLT 45.54 analysis

Usain Bolt ran the 19th 400m of his career in 45.54 on Saturday 21 February.

The race http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puKnL6nNkr0

Bolt Wins 

http://www.reuters.com/article/sportsNews/idUSTRE51L0BB20090222
QUOTE He slumped to the ground after the race and was swarmed by a crowd of officials including medical personnel, who helped him stretch and rub his hamstring.

Intermediate times from the video (these are not hand time but my estimated electric times rounded to the nearest tenth).
100m 10.9
200m 21.6 (10.7)
300m 33.0 (11.4)
400m 45.54 (12.5) (21.6 + 23.9)

The model for 45.5, adapted from Moravec (TCH) and Schaffer (GDR) tempo tables :
100m 11.3-11.4
200m 21.8-21.9 (10.5)
300m 33.0-33.1 (11.2)
400m 45.5 (12.4-12.5) (21.8-21.9 + 23.7-23.6)

Bolt obviously went out too fast (10.9 leads to 44.0 according to Schaffer) BUT a 45.5 performer usually has a 10.4/20.8 background at 100m and 200m (from Letzelter). In August, Bolt’s level was 9.6 (rounded down because of the deceleration during the 9.69) /19.2 (19.30 was run against wind) but it’s difficult to estimate his current shape. From the shape of his training partner Yohan Blake (20.60), i guess Bolt is worth around 10.0 and 20.0 (which is awsome, assuming he resume serious training after Xmas, according to coach Mills). This still leaves a huge speed reserve while cruising to 100m in 10.9 and 200m 21.6, but makes his speed endurance index much lower than the 400m usual standards.
Stepping up occasionally to 400m, sprinters usually take benefit of a more cautious pace, so in that race, Bolt was probably able to run around his 45.28 PB set two years ago in May.

http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090223/sports/sports2.html
QUOTE « It’s part of his training, » Mills said. « What you saw is a big difference from last week, but that was expected. Each week, he will get better and better until we get right where we want to be. « Right now we are focusing on getting ready for our first international competition, which is in May, so we still have a lot of work to do to get him back in the shape we want him to be, » he added.

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2 Réponses to “Usain BOLT 45.54 analysis”

  1. Seb Says:

    Devant cette analyse et à la lecture des fantasmes de certains concernant le possible passage sur 400m de l’ami Bolt, je me dis que l’évolution du jeune homme promet surtout d’envisager la, déjà, possible disparition des 19″30 de Pékin pour cet été !

  2. Pierre-Jean Vazel Says:

    Effectivement, son temps passage aux 100m (9.96) en finale à Pékin indique une performance finale aux alentours de 19.0 puisqu’il faut multiplier la première moitié de course par 1.90-1.93 pour obtenir l’estimation sur 200m, pour un spécialiste du 200m ayant une endurance de vitesse spécifique normale (formule basée sur des centaines d’analyses de courses entre 1968 et 2008).

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